A One And Done This Week! – Daily Pfennig

Chuck Butler’s: A Pfennig For Your Thoughts

December 27, 2017

* All Three Anti-dollar assets rally!

* Kicking the can down the road again… 

* Tax Bill is ready to put in place… 

Good Day…  And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I hope your Christmas celebration was grand, mine was! And yesterday was Kathy’s birthday. We were celebrated out, and spent a quiet night at home. Alex has been here with us for the weekend, for now, it’s nice that he’s here. Gerry & the Pacemakers greet me this morning with their 60’s hit song: Ferry Cross the Mersey… I used to sing that song to Alex when he was a baby to help him fall asleep…  That was 22 years ago, and the song was old then! HA!

Well, remember when we came back from the Thanksgiving holiday and I talked about how nice it was that the NY traders were out for a few days, as the currencies and meals rallied in their absence?  Well, so far this week, this is a rinse and repeat of those days after Thanksgiving.

The currencies, led by the Big Dog euro, have all gotten off the porch to chase the dollar down the street. Yesterday, the first day back from the Christmas holiday, saw widespread dollar selling. The euro is knock, knock, knocking on heaven’s door, no wait! The euro is knocking on the 1.19 handle this morning, and Gold found a way to carve out an $8.50 gain yesterday…

Friday, last week, I sent out a tweet, regarding the lawmakers once again, kicking the can down the road. They still don’t have a budget, and they are still playing around with a possible government shutdown. I told you when they “extended” the negotiations the last time for two weeks, that it was ridiculous to think that these guys and gals could come up with a budget in two week’s time, given they had all year up to that time to do it!

And, they didn’t! So, now we’re looking at the deadline being in two weeks… But what says that the negotiations will be finished by then? I just shake my head and wonder what it will take to bring the two sides together to make a budget? It’s a sad, sad state of affairs, if you ask me!

And this morning I came across an article on the Bloomberg that was titled: Subprime Auto Defaults Are Soaring…  Not that these Subprime Auto loans are any near the size of the problem with the subprime Home Loans back in 2007, when that meltdown began.

But yet, Consumer Confidence is soaring higher and higher with every new print… Man, this reminds me of 2000 all over again… The stock market led by the Tech stocks, was soaring, but there were all these problems going on that should have affected the stock market, but it didn’t, and Consumer Confidence was soaring back then like it is now…  And then we drove our Chevy to the levee but the levee was dry… And all the King’s horses and all the King’s Men couldn’t put the stock market back together again until all the excesses were cleaned out…

Can you imagine h9w nasty this correction will be given how high the stock market has run? OUCH! Now that’s going to leave a mark!  But a lot of pundits are waking around with egg on their faces right now, because they’ve been calling for this correction in the stock market for months now and it just hasn’t come to fruition…  I’m not putting any timeline on this thought, instead, I’m just saying that it will be nasty when it happens…

I’m already on the hook for saying that I thought the Fed’s rate hikes were over, and by now they would be talking about the reversal of their previous rate hikes… I still think it’s coming… sort of like the old 3 Dog Night song. Eli’s coming…  And as usual I’m out in front on this call, and my timing is ahead of the crowd…  I wouldn’t be a good comedian, because my timing has shown that it needs a lot of work!

The price of Oil hasn’t taken any passes on all this dollar selling, and has moved to the $49 handle. Last week’s supplies numbers were lower than expected, and that got the price of Oil moving in the right direction, and the momentum is moving in Oil’s favor right now…

So, all the anti-dollar assets, Gold, euros, Oil, are kicking some dollar tail this morning, and taking names later. It’s been awhile since I could talk about all three anti-dollar assets moving against the dollar at the same time.  As I said above, Gold carved out an $8.50 gain yesterday, and is looking ready to move past $1,300 to end the year…

I gave my grandkids some Silver coins for Christmas… Of course the coins didn’t match their legos and American Dolls, but one day… maybe when they’re going off to college, and need some dough, they’ll ask their parents for those coins, and find out that the present from me all those years ago, was something special…

Last week I was reading an article from Ted Butler (no relation that I know of) the Silver Guru, and he was talking about how JP Morgan got into the short paper trades in Silver… They inherited the business from Bear Stearns, when they bought the failing company back in 2007… Ted Butler’s thought was that the agreement to take on the short paper trades was a 10-year deal that would be expiring soon. And guess who probably has the largest holdings of physical Silver?  That’s right, JP Morgan…  Do, you see the reason they not only took over the short paper trades in Silver business but enhanced it?   Ah, said the blind man as he spit into the wind, “it’s all coming back to me now”…

Of course that’s Ted Butler’s opinion, of which I agree with wholeheartedly…  What do you think?

Well, the Tax Reform Bill did get sent to the President who signed it before Christmas.. I was shocked that it got done that quickly or so it seemed.  I’ve dived deep into the tax bill, and I just don’t see it turning around the economy like it’s billed to be… And it certainly isn’t revenue/ spending neutral like it was supposed to be. $1.8 Trillion and probably more once they get going, will be added to the National Debt in the coming years…  So, much for it being neutral, eh?  

So, it’s all finished, signed, sealed, delivered it’s yours…  Happy Days are here again, the… no wait! Let’s see what this does for us first, eh?  

There’s not much in the Data Cupboard this week for us to look forward to seeing. We will see the Consumer Confidence for the first two weeks of this month today, but besides that, it’s all non-market moving data, which is a good thing, because I’m convinced that the major players in NYC are still away, and we don’t need any wild swings going into the end of the year.  

We will see book squaring, and positions close outs going into the end of the year, but those shouldn’t cause too much volatility. So, it’s all about the currencies, Gold and Oil this week as far as I can tell, as the major players are still opening presents and filling their stomachs with pumpkin pie. 

And with that thought, it’s a good week to end early for me… Tomorrow morning is an infusion morning, so no Pfennig Tomorrow or Friday…  But check your Tweets, for you never know when I’m going to send out a Tweet! 

To recap… The U.S. lawmakers had to kick the can down the road again on Friday, as they avoided a Gov’t shutdown, but still couldn’t agree on a budget. This got the currencies and metals moving and yesterday they really took a pound of flesh from the dollar, and Chuck thinks this will be the theme for the week. All three anti-dollar assets, Gold, Oil and currencies are moving against the dollar for the first time in a while..   

For What It’s Worth… Longtime dear reader Bob, sent me this since I’ve been talking about China’s moves against the dollar for a long time he thought it played nicely in the sandbox with my previous thoughts… It’s about China’s petrol-renminbi move and can be found here: http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/48497.htm   

Or, here’s your snippet: “Petrodollars have dominated the global energy markets for more than 40 years. But now, China is looking to change that by replacing the word dollars for yuan.

Nations, of course, have tried this before since the system was set up by former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in tandem with the House of Saud back in 1974

Vast populations across the Middle East and Northern Africa quickly felt the consequences when Iraq’s Saddam Hussein decided to sell oil in euros. Then there was Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi’s pan-African gold dinar blueprint, which failed to create a splash in an oil barrel.

Fast forward 25 years and China is making a move to break the United States petrodollar stranglehold. The plan is to set up oil-futures trading in the yuan, which will be fully convertible into gold on the Shanghai and Hong Kong foreign exchange markets. ”  

Chuck again… nothing new to regular Pfennig Readers, but a good recap of what’s going on… 

Currencies today 12/27/17… American Style: A$ .7770, kiwi .7075, C$ .7917, euro 1.1894, sterling 1.3410, Swiss $1.0111, … European Style: rand 12.4303, krone 8.2926, SEK 8.2993, forint 261.41, zloty 3.5221, koruna 21.7173, RUB 57.82, yen 113.23, sing 1.3394, HKD 7.8146, INR 63.98, China 6.5448, peso 19.78, BRL 3.3248, Dollar Index 93.04, Oil $59.45, 10-year 2.47%, Silver $16.66, Platinum $922.75, Palladium $1,057.90, and Gold… $1,289.10  

That’s it for today, this week, and this year! Yes, when I come back next week it will be 2018! I’m getting around much better these days and the pain has, not gone away, but has weakened… YAHOO!  I heard from some longtime friends over the weekend.. Ed, and Jack, and Lauren, and Suzanne, and I can’t forget about Kathy G! Now, please be careful this weekend going out and about… Kathy’s dad used to call New Year’s Eve, “amateur’s night”…  And let’s all think a lot about how to make 2018, a better year…  I’m so ready for 2017 to end, I had some major steps backward with my health in 2017, and 2018 had better be better or I’ll not be here next year at this time! I’m just saying…  Steely Dan takes us to the finish line today with their song: Aja…  from my fave Steely Dan album of the same name…  I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday, and fun filled New Year’s Eve, and Be Good To Yourself!  

Chuck Butler

 

 

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Oil falls from 2015 highs as rally runs out of steam

A storage tank is pictured on the site of Canadian group Vermilion Energy in Parentis-en-Born, France, October 13, 2017. REUTERS/Regis Duvignau

December 27, 2017

By Dmitry Zhdannikov

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Wednesday after hitting a near two-and-a-half year high in the previous session as analysts said the rally was gradually running out of steam despite supply outages in Libya and the North Sea.

Brent crude futures dropped to $66.27 a barrel, down 1.15 percent, or 75 cents, at 1321 GMT after breaking through $67 for the first time since May 2015 the previous day.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $59.53 a barrel, down 44 cents from their last settlement. WTI broke through $60 a barrel for the first time since June 2015 in the previous session.

“This could now be the fourth year in a row when the period around the turn of the year offers a good opportunity to start fading the market,” JBC Energy said in a note.

JBC said it believed the market will gradually realize it had overshot: “We would have to argue that sometime over the course of January we will see a major turnaround.”

It said prices could fall below $60 a barrel sometime in February and could even test $55 a barrel.

On Tuesday, Libya lost around 90,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil supplies from a blast on a pipeline feeding Es Sider port.

Repair of the pipeline could take about one week but will not have a major impact on exports, the head of Libyan state oil firm NOC told Reuters on Wednesday.

The Libyan outage added to supply disruptions of recent weeks, which also included the closure of Britain’s largest Forties pipeline.

On Wednesday, Forties was pumping at half its normal capacity and its operator was pledging to resume full flows in early January.

The Forties and Libyan outages, which together amount to around 500,000 bpd, are relatively small in a global context of both production and demand approaching 100 million bpd.

“The net global impact of the (Libyan) pipeline explosion is relatively small and we will not blow out of proportion the impact of the incident on the supply and demand picture,” said Olivier Jakob from Swiss-based Petromatrix.

He said the market could be supported by a U.S. cold spell and expectations of greater heating oil consumption.

Oil markets have tightened significantly over the past year thanks to voluntary supply restraint led the Middle East-dominated Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC Russia.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that following rampant oversupply in 2015, global oil markets gradually came into balance by 2016 and started to show a slight supply deficit this year.

EIA data implies a slight supply shortfall of 180,000 bpd for the first quarter of 2018.

A major factor countering efforts by OPEC and Russia efforts to prop up prices is U.S. oil production, which has soared more than 16 percent since mid-2016 and is fast approaching 10 million bpd.

Only OPEC king-pin Saudi Arabia and Russia produce more.

The latest U.S. production figures are due to be published by the EIA on Thursday.

For a graphic on global oil supply and demand, click: link http://reut.rs/2C9rqyC

(Reporting by Henning Gloystein; Editing by Kenneth Maxwell and David Evans)

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‘Comfort women’ row with Japan unresolved despite 2015 deal, South Korea says

FILE PHOTO: Students hold portraits of deceased former South Korean “comfort women” during a weekly anti-Japan rally in front of Japanese embassy in Seoul, South Korea, December 30, 2015. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji

December 27, 2017

SEOUL (Reuters) – A 2015 agreement with Japan over South Korean women who were forced to work in Japan’s wartime military brothels failed to meet the needs of victims, South Korea’s foreign minister said on Wednesday.

Kang Kyung-wha apologized for the controversial deal as a public-private panel appointed by her unveiled results of an investigation into it.

The investigation concluded that the dispute over the “comfort women”, a Japanese euphemism for the women forced to work in wartime brothels, could not be “fundamentally resolved” because the victims’ demand for Japan’s legal compensation had not been met.

The South Korean government will review the result of the investigation and translate it into policy after consulting victims and civic groups that support them, Kang told a news conference.

(Reporting by Hyonhee Shin; Editing by Robert Birsel)

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Joy Villa Files Sexual Assault Complaint

Joy Villa said she will speak with Washington detectives next week after filing a sexual assault complaint against Corey Lewandowski for an alleged incident at a party last month in D.C.

“I didn’t know him [Lewandowski] at all. I only knew him by reputation. He broke my trust,” the 26-year-old singer told the Associated Press Tuesday. (RELATED: Joy Villa: I’m Here To Help Carry President Trump’s Message)

LOS ANGELES, CA – FEBRUARY 12: Singer Joy Villa attends The 59th GRAMMY Awards at STAPLES Center on February 12, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Frazer Harrison/Getty Images)

Villa explained how she saw Lewandowski at a gathering at the Trump International Hotel the day after Thanksgiving, and that’s when she alleged that he hit her two times “extremely hard” on the buttocks even after she asked him to stop, calling the incident “disgusting and shocking and demeaning.”

She added that she wasn’t going to say anything about it fearing a backlash. However, she changed her mind and called the Washington Metropolitan Police Department on Christmas Eve, after a friend who allegedly saw the incident spoke about it and others encouraged her to come forward. Lewandowski was for a time Trump’s campaign manager during the election.

“I was initially fearful to come forward with this,” Villa explained, sharing that she hoped to avoid bringing any shame or embarrassment to either of their families.

“I did nothing wrong,” she added. “I realized if he’s not going to respond or apologize to me, I think it’s the right thing to do.”

“Here’s the photo of @CLewandowski_ seconds before he slapped my ass, I told him to stop, and then he did it again. I was shocked and embarrassed by his behavior,” Villa tweeted about the alleged incident along with a photo.

Here’s the photo of @CLewandowski_ seconds before he slapped my ass, I told him to stop, and then he did it again. I was shocked and embarrassed by his behavior. https://t.co/61EYvOG4e9 pic.twitter.com/a8NgLnvCEZ

— Joy Villa (@Joy_Villa) December 23, 2017

Earlier this month, the singer who wore a “Make America Great Again” dress to the 2017 Grammy Awards and has been an outspoken supporter of President Donald Trump. She’s also launched an exploratory committee for a possible “congressional run for the state of Florida.”

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Oil soars, U.S. crude hits $60/bbl for first time since mid-2015

ExxonMobil’s Hebron oil platform is shown off the coast of Canada’s Newfoundland & Labrador, in this June 13, 2017 handout photo. Courtesy ExxonMobil Canada/Handout via REUTERS

December 27, 2017

By Devika Krishna Kumar

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Oil prices surged to 2-1/2-year highs and U.S. crude touched $60 a barrel in light trading volume on Tuesday, boosted by news of an explosion on a Libyan crude pipeline as well as voluntary OPEC-led supply cuts.

Armed assailants blew up a pipeline pumping crude oil to the port of Es Sider on Tuesday, cutting Libya’s output by up to 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to military and energy sources.

The state-run National Oil Corporation (NOC) said in a statement that output had been reduced by 70,000 to 100,000 bpd. The cause of the blast was unclear, it added.

The North African country’s output had been recovering in recent months after being held down for years amid armed conflict and unrest.

Brent crude <LCOc1>, the international benchmark for oil prices, settled at $67.02 a barrel, up by $1.77, or 2.71 percent. During the session, front-month prices touched a high of $67.10 a barrel, their highest since mid-May 2015.

U.S. crude <CLc1> climbed $1.50, or 2.6 percent, to end the session at $59.97 a barrel after touching a session high of $60.01, the highest since late-June 2015.

The impending restart of Forties, a key North Sea pipeline, limited the extent of the rally. Oil and gas flows through the pipeline will be increased gradually, its operator Ineos said on Tuesday, adding that the Kinneil processing plant was partially restarted.

“Keep in mind that the field and pipeline are old and it may have issues and it’s probably why the market isn’t selling off,” said Scott Shelton, a broker at ICAP in Durham, North Carolina.

Trading activity was thin following the Christmas holiday and London trading was muted during Boxing Day. About 72,000 contracts of front-month Brent futures changed hands on Tuesday, well below the typical daily average of more than 250,000 contracts.

In the United States, the energy complex was led higher by heating oil futures. Prices <HOc1> rose as much as 3.6 percent to a session high of $2.0410, the highest since early June 2015 on forecasts for cold weather.

Brent has risen 17 percent in the year to date while U.S. crude has rallied about 11 percent so far in 2017.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, plus Russia and other non-members, have been withholding some output since Jan. 1 to relieve a glut. The producers have extended the supply cut agreement to cover all of 2018.

Iraq’s oil minister said on Monday there would be a balance between supply and demand by the first quarter, leading to a boost in prices. Global oil inventories have decreased to an acceptable level, he added.

That outlook is earlier than predicted in OPEC’s latest official forecast, which calls for a balanced market by late 2018. [OPEC/M]

U.S. shipments to China, one of the world’s biggest oil consumers, have benefited from the OPEC-led output cuts. Russia, however, was China’s largest crude oil supplier for the ninth month in a row in November, topping Saudi Arabia for the year so far, China’s customs data showed on Tuesday.

While the OPEC action has lent support to prices all year, market participants have said the unplanned shutdown of the Forties pipeline on Dec. 11 is what helped push Brent to its 2-1/2-year high.

Forties is the biggest of the five North Sea crude streams underpinning Brent, the benchmark for oil trading in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia.

Still, rising production in the United States is offsetting some of the OPEC-led cuts.

The U.S. rig count <RIG-OL-USA-BHI>, an early indicator of future output, held steady at 747 in the week to Dec. 22, according to the latest weekly report by Baker Hughes.

U.S. crude oil inventories were likely down for a sixth straight week, while gasoline stockpiles saw a probable build last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

(Additional reporting by Alex Lawler in London and Henning Gloystein; editing by G Crosse and Tom Brown)

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U.K. GOV’T pleads with Prince Harry: Don’t invite Obama to your wedding, because Trump will be upset — TRUMP’s hidden Cabinet — IMPEACHMENT debate divides Dems — DAVID BROOKS’ Sidney Awards

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Bitcoin recoups some losses after its worst week since 2013

FILE PHOTO: Broken representations of the Bitcoin virtual currency, placed on a monitor that displays binary digits, are seen in this illustration picture, December 8, 2017. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

December 26, 2017

By Vidya Ranganathan, Lisa Twaronite and Richard Leong

SINGAPORE/TOKYO/NEW YORK (Reuters) – Bitcoin rose 13 percent on Tuesday, recovering about half of the losses it sustained last week, its worst since 2013, as investors who missed out on earlier rallies bought the world’s biggest and best-known digital currency.

While bitcoin investors and analysts believe last week’s decline in its value was a natural correction after a heady run-up in prices, there have been further warnings from market regulators and central banks.

Bitcoin fell nearly 30 percent at one stage on Friday to $11,159.93. At 1:27 p.m. (1827 GMT), bitcoin <BTC=BTSP> was up 13 percent at $15,630.00 in light trading on the Luxembourg-based Bitstamp exchange.

“The latest price move shows bitcoin is still a speculative investment. There is enormous amount of volatility there,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist with Invesco in New York.

The digital currency had risen around twentyfold since the start of the year, climbing from less than $1,000 to as high as $19,666 on Dec. 17 on Bitstamp and to over $20,000 on other exchanges.

“There is no right current price which would reflect the right current valuation,” said Andrei Popescu, Singapore-based co-founder of COSS, which describes itself as a platform that encompasses all features of a digital economy based on cryptocurrency.

“Taking profit is right, while buying into a long term projection is also right. You don’t have to be right in this market, just less wrong than the rest,” Popescu said.

Meanwhile, critics have pointed to bitcoin’s design flaws and hacks of digital “wallets” in which bitcoins are kept as an alternative to traditional currencies.

“We therefore think that bitcoin is a product that is unable to fulfill the basic functions it is meant to fulfill. We therefore think it is likely a bubble, that will eventually fade, as other cryptocurrencies will take over,” Citi analysts wrote in a research published on Friday.

Shmuel Hauser, the chairman of the Israel Securities Authority, was the latest among regulators to voice his concerns. He said on Monday he will propose regulation to ban companies based on bitcoin and other digital currencies from trading on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange.

Singapore’s central bank last week issued a warning against investment in cryptocurrencies, saying it considers the recent surge in prices to be driven by speculation and that the risk of a sharp fall in prices is high.

Prices of other cryptocurrencies, which slid along with bitcoin last week, have also recovered, with Ethereum, the second-biggest cryptocurrency by market size, quoted around $771, up from Sunday’s low of $689 but still far from highs around $900 hit last week.

(Editing by Sam Holmes and Susan Thomas)

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GOP Rep Wants Nat Monument Cuts Codified

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Russia’s Lavrov says timing of Putin-Trump meeting not yet discussed: RIA

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov speaks during a news conference following the talks with British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson in Moscow, Russia December 22, 2017. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

December 26, 2017

(This version of the Dec. 25 story was refiled to amend signoff with no changes to text)

MOSCOW (Reuters) – The timing of the next meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump has not yet been discussed, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told RIA news agency in an interview on Monday.

“The timings of the next personal meeting have not yet been discussed,” he said.

(Writing by Polina Ivanova; editing by Polina Devitt)

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China imports no iron ore, coal, lead from North Korea in November: customs

A North Korean iron ore mine, near the North Korean town of Musan is seen in this general view taken May 11, 2013. REUTERS/John Ruwitch

December 26, 2017

BEIJING (Reuters) – China imported no iron ore, coal or lead from North Korea in November, the second full month of the latest trade sanctions imposed by United Nations against Pyongyang, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Tuesday.

The world’s second-largest economy also did not export any gasoline, jet fuel, diesel or fuel oil to its isolated neighbor, customs data showed.

The U.N. Security Council unanimously imposed new sanctions on North Korea in August that could slash by a third the Asian state’s $3 billion annual export revenue in response to its two intercontinental ballistic missile tests in July.

Customs data showed exports of liquefied petroleum gas to North Korea grew up 58.3 percent in November to 99 tonnes compared to a year ago, while ethanol exports rose 82 percent to 3,428 cubic meters.

(Reporting by Muyu Xu and Ryan Woo; Editing by Kenneth Maxwell)

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